D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to accrue 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (84.8%) vs. running backs this year (84.8%).

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this year (13.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.3%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
D'Andre Swift's receiving performance has worsened this season, averaging a measly 3.1 yards per game compared to 4.8 last season.
D'Andre Swift's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 75.2%.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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