D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -169 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to total 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the 8th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
D'Andre Swift's 21.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
D'Andre Swift's receiving performance has declined this season, accumulating just 3.0 yards per game compared to 4.8 last season.
D'Andre Swift's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 81.5% to 72.7%.

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