D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.0 (+132/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 3.0 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
D'Andre Swift has been less involved as a potential target this season (52.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (65.4%).
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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