D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Tyson Bagent.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are anticipated by the projection model to call 67.4 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number on the slate this week.
The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 68.5 plays per game.
In this game, D'Andre Swift is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 90th percentile among RBs with 4.0 targets.
D'Andre Swift has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 10.2% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bears to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to air yards, D'Andre Swift grades out in the lowly 20th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -5.0 per game.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.