D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-102/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
D'Andre Swift has run a route on 47.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
This week, D'Andre Swift is predicted by the model to land in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.0 targets.
The Chicago O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to air yards, D'Andre Swift grades out in the lowly 17th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -2.0 per game.