D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-112/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chicago Bears to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The most plays in the league have been called by the Chicago Bears last year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
D'Andre Swift has run a route on 48.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
The projections expect D'Andre Swift to garner 3.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) last year.
D'Andre Swift has put up a puny -2.0 air yards per game last year: a lowly 21st percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift profiles as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football when it comes to running backs, catching a measly 75.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 5th percentile.

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