D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
D'Andre Swift has run a route on 64.9% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
D'Andre Swift has compiled a mere 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 22nd percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.4% to 59.0%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (75.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against running backs since the start of last season, yielding 5.26 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

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