D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+107/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to accrue 4.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten better this year, accumulating 9.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 7.73 mark last year.
The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
D'Andre Swift's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
D'Andre Swift has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (26.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).