D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to garner 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift's skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 9.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 7.73 mark last season.
The New York Jets pass defense has not been good when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 8.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the league.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift has been much less involved in his offense's passing attack this season (13.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (18.3%).
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
D'Andre Swift has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
D'Andre Swift's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 74.7%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (75.1%) versus running backs this year (75.1%).

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