D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to garner 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift has been much less involved in his offense's pass game this year (12.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.3%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
D'Andre Swift has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
D'Andre Swift's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 81.5% to 77.3%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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