D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift has been among the best pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a stellar 29.0 yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.
D'Andre Swift's receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, totaling 6.87 yards-per-target compared to just 5.59 mark last season.
D'Andre Swift's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, accumulating 10.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 7.73 rate last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
D'Andre Swift has been less involved as a potential target this season (52.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (65.4%).
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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