D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D'Andre Swift has run a route on 65.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to garner 6.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift has been among the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 33.0 yards per game while ranking in the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
D'Andre Swift has accumulated a meager 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 23rd percentile among RBs.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.72 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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