D'Andre Swift Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+432/-980).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -967 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -980.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 4th-most TDs through the air in football to running backs: 0.29 per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.