D'Andre Swift Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+427/-958).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +438 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +427.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
D'Andre Swift's 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 99th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift has been not been very involved his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift has compiled a mere 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 22nd percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.4% to 59.0%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (75.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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