D'Andre Swift Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-769).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +403 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +376.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
D'Andre Swift has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift ranks in the 90th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.20 per game.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift's 20.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
D'Andre Swift's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 74.7%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (75.1%) versus running backs this year (75.1%).
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 5th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to running backs: 0.08 per game this year.