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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

D'Andre Swift Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-873).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +409 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +405.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

D'Andre Swift has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.8% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

D'Andre Swift has posted a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

D'Andre Swift's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 27.5.

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

D'Andre Swift's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 75.2%.

The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

More D'Andre Swift Player Props

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