D'Andre Swift Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 6, 2026 8:38 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-106/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 6 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to run on 46.2% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The Chicago Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 66.1 plays per game.
In this week's contest, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 92nd percentile among RBs with 19.1 rush attempts.
The model projects D'Andre Swift to be a more integral piece of his team's ground game in this contest (64.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been excellent this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

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