D'Andre Swift Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+105/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ +136 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.8% run rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are anticipated by the projection model to call 67.4 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number on the slate this week.
The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 68.5 plays per game.
In this week's game, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by the projection model to finish in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 19.1 carries.
While D'Andre Swift has received 43.4% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Chicago's run game this week at 64.9%.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.