D'Andre Swift Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.63 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast D'Andre Swift to total 13.3 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

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