D'Andre Swift Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to accumulate 11.1 carries in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift has received 43.5% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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