Damien Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Damien Harris to notch 11.5 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Damien Harris has received 47.1% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Damien Harris has generated 50.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (75th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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