Damien Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damien Harris has received 58.6% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Damien Harris has rushed for 0.89 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.68 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends rank as the 6th-best collection of DEs in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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