Damien Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+210/-275).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Damien Harris has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a terrific 91.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.5%) to running backs since the start of last season (84.5%).
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 8th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.