Dameon Pierce Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 44.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
Dameon Pierce has been given 92.3% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has rushed for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

Favors Under

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans have incorporated motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.