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Dameon Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-165).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.Dameon Pierce has played on 54.7% of his team's snaps this year, putting him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
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