Dalvin Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dalvin Cook

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-123/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +114 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (67.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.5% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-most TDs in the league (1.25 per game) against the Chicago Bears defense this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings have been the least run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 25.7% red zone run rate.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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