Dalvin Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dalvin Cook

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-205/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Dalvin Cook has run a route on 55.6% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to earn 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Dalvin Cook's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.5% to 73.5%.

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