Dalvin Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.75 seconds per play.
Dalvin Cook has run a route on 55.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Dalvin Cook has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, hauling in a measly 76.8% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (78.3%) vs. running backs this year (78.3%).
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.