Dalvin Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Dalvin Cook

NFL · Player Props

Dalvin Cook

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalvin Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+101/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Dalvin Cook has put up a mere -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 12th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Dalvin Cook's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 4.53 yards-per-target vs a 5.32 mark last season.
Dalvin Cook's ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this season, notching a mere 6.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.94 figure last season.
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 25.0) vs. running backs this year.

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