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Dalvin Cook

Dalvin Cook Carries
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dalvin Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-139/+102).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The Jets rank as the 7th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 42.3% run rate.

Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.

After taking on 69.3% of his offense's carries last season, Dalvin Cook has been called on less the rushing attack this season, now accounting for only 39.7%.

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