Dalton Schultz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:01 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Texans to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Dalton Schultz's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 34.7.
Dalton Schultz's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 70.0% to 61.2%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.1%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (66.1%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.