Dalton Schultz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Dalton Schultz to garner 4.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Dalton Schultz has been among the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Texans as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the league.
Dalton Schultz's 23.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 39.7.
The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.