Dalton Schultz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Dalton Schultz

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 132.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
The model projects Dalton Schultz to garner 6.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
The Jaguars pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (64.5%) vs. TEs this year (64.5%).
The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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