Dalton Schultz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dalton Schultz

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:56 AM EST

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have 132.0 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to total 6.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Dalton Schultz has been in the 89th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 38.4 figure this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans offensive scheme to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.6 per game) this year.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (66.2%) to TEs this year (66.2%).

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