Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The model projects Dalton Schultz to notch 5.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
In regards to air yards, Dalton Schultz grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a superb 40.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Dalton Schultz has accrued quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
With a weak 63.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (22nd percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz rates among the most hard-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.
This year, the stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a mere 65.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.