Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to garner 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
Dalton Schultz has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 18.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.1% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Dalton Schultz's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 64.7% to 55.9%.