Dalton Schultz Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dalton Schultz

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+251/-409).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -389 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -409.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Dalton Schultz has posted a whopping 36.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among TEs.
Dalton Schultz's 38.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Dalton Schultz to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (20.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (28.6% in games he has played).
Dalton Schultz's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 76.3% to 72.8%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a lowly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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