Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-199).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing more favorable weather this week.
The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game (18.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the towering 96th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, totaling a striking 45.0 per game.
Dalton Kincaid's 38.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in football: 91st percentile for TEs.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.3% red zone run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving TDs in the NFL to tight ends: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.