Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-217).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a mere 28.04 seconds per play, the Bills offense comes in as the 10th-fastest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack results when facing improved weather in this week's contest.
The model projects Dalton Kincaid to be a more important option in his team's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.9% in games he has played).
In regards to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 97th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating an impressive 46.0 per game.
Dalton Kincaid's 39.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills as the 4th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 10th-most run-centric offense in football in the red zone (45.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Bills.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased rush volume.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.