Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects Dalton Kincaid to notch 6.6 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
While Dalton Kincaid has accounted for 13.8% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Buffalo's pass game in this game at 19.0%.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
Dalton Kincaid profiles as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 4.3 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

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