Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to accumulate 4.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among TEs.
Dalton Kincaid has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching a stellar 90.3% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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