Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to total 5.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
With an exceptional 17.1% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
With a fantastic 5.1 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid has been as one of the leading pass-catching TEs in football.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.

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