Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 9, 2026 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-103/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to total 5.8 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Dalton Kincaid has notched many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (39.0 per game).
Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 35.4.
Dalton Kincaid has accrued significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 30.3 per game) this year.

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