Dallas Goedert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+344/-355).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
With an extraordinary 28.8% Red Zone Target Share (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Dallas Goedert places as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert has posted a colossal 36.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Dallas Goedert places in the 90th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a whopping 38.3 mark since the start of last season.
Dallas Goedert's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 78.1% to 84.4%.

Favors Under

At the moment, the most run-centric offense in football in the red zone (52.5% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Eagles.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.8 total plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.
The Eagles have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.5 plays per game.
The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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