Dallas Goedert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 22, 2026 7:47 AM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+685/-869).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -660 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -869.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing more favorable weather this week.
With a top-tier 28.8% Red Zone Target Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Dallas Goedert stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.
Dallas Goedert has compiled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 90th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.4% red zone run rate.
Since the start of last season, the tough Bears defense has surrendered a paltry 0.32 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.