Dallas Goedert Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:52 PM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+233/-251).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -228 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -251.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Philadelphia's passing stats last year may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with improved weather in this game.
Dallas Goedert has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.8% last year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among TEs.
As it relates to air yards, Dallas Goedert ranks in the towering 86th percentile among TEs last year, accruing a massive 37.0 per game.
Dallas Goedert has been in the 92nd percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 40.1 mark last year.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.4% red zone run rate.
The Eagles have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.

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