Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 11:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.1 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 87.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Our trusted projections expect Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dallas Goedert's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.2% to 74.7%.

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