Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 2:10 AM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 5.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert's 30.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 43.8.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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