Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accrue 4.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Dallas Goedert has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 94th percentile among TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Dallas Goedert has been among the top TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.

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