Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
With a high 79.8% Route% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Dallas Goedert stands as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.
The projections expect Dallas Goedert to notch 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Dallas Goedert has posted a colossal 36.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Dallas Goedert grades out as one of the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 39.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.8 total plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.
The Eagles have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.5 plays per game.
The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Jaguars pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in football.

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